After months of tracking approximately twenty per cent below the ten-year seasonal average, Metro Vancouver home sales surged more than 30 per cent year-over-year in October.

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports that residential sales registered on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in the region totalled 2,632 in October 2024, a 31.9 per cent increase from the 1,996 sales recorded in October 2023. This was 5.5 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (2,784).

“Typically, reductions to mortgage rates boost demand, and the strong October sales numbers suggest buyers may finally be responding to lower borrowing costs after waiting on the sidelines for months,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics said. “To some market watchers, this rebound may come as a surprise, but with four consecutive rate cuts from the Bank of Canada – and more likely to come on the horizon – it was only a matter of time until signs of renewed strength in demand showed up.”

There were 5,452 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver in October 2024. This represents a 16.9 per cent increase compared to the 4,664 properties listed in October 2023. This was 20 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (4,545).

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 14,477, a 24.8 per cent increase compared to October 2023 (11,599). This total is also 26.2 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (11,475).

Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for October 2024 is 18.8 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 13.4 per cent for detached homes, 22.5 per cent for attached, and 22.2 per cent for apartments.

Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

“While the strength in October's numbers is encouraging, one data point does not make a trend," Lis said. "Recent data shows that market conditions have been decidedly balanced, with prices easing over the past few months. With the recent uptick in sales however, the attached and apartment segments are now tilting toward a seller’s market with the detached segment not far behind, suggesting the recent period of price moderation may be nearing an end."

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is $1,172,200. This represents a 1.9 per cent decrease over October 2023 and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to September 2024.

Sales of detached homes in October 2024 reached 724, a 25.5 per cent increase from the 577 detached sales recorded in October 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,002,900. This represents a 0.3 per cent increase from October 2023 and a 1 per cent decrease compared to September 2024.

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,393 in October 2024, a 33.4 per cent increase compared to the 1,044 sales in October 2023. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $757,200. This represents a 1.6 per cent decrease from October 2023 and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to September 2024.

Attached home sales in October 2024 totalled 501, a 40.7 per cent increase compared to the 356 sales in October 2023. The benchmark price of a townhouse is $1,108,800. This represents a 0.4 per cent increase from October 2023 and a 0.9 per cent increase compared to September 2024.

Key Datasets:

• North Vancouver (VNV):

  • MLS® HPI Price: $1,392,300 (October 2023)

  • Sales: 194 (October 2023)

  • Total Inventory: 606 (October 2023)

  • Sales to Active Ratio: 32% (October 2023)

• West Vancouver (VWV):

  • MLS® HPI Price: $2,658,100 (October 2023)

  • Sales: 53 (October 2023)

  • Total Inventory: 593 (October 2023)

  • Sales to Active Ratio: 9% (October 2023)

Comparative Analysis:

• Price Changes:

  • Over the past year, North Vancouver's MLS® HPI Price increased by approximately 4.5%, while West Vancouver saw a rise of around 3.4%.

  • In the last five years, North Vancouver's home prices surged by about 48%, whereas West Vancouver experienced an increase of approximately 38%.

• Sales and Inventory Changes:

  • In North Vancouver, the number of sales increased by 47% over the last year, with a 9% decrease in total inventory.

  • West Vancouver saw a decrease of 11% in sales and a 7% decrease in total inventory over the same period.

• Sales to Active Ratio:

  • North Vancouver has a Sales to Active Ratio of 32%, categorizing it as a seller's market.

  • West Vancouver, with a Sales to Active Ratio of 9%, is considered to have a balanced market.

Percentage Changes (1 Year Ago, 5 Years Ago, and 10 Years Ago):

• North Vancouver:

  • 1 Year Ago (October 2022):

    • MLS® HPI Price: +4.5%

    • Sales: +47%

    • Total Inventory: -9%

  • 5 Years Ago (October 2018):

    • MLS® HPI Price: +48%

    • Sales: +78%

    • Total Inventory: -18%

  • 10 Years Ago (October 2013):

    • MLS® HPI Price: +106%

    • Sales: +83%

    • Total Inventory: +28%

• West Vancouver:

  • 1 Year Ago (October 2022):

    • MLS® HPI Price: +3.4%

    • Sales: -11%

    • Total Inventory: -7%

  • 5 Years Ago (October 2018):

    • MLS® HPI Price: +38%

    • Sales: +16%

    • Total Inventory: -23%

  • 10 Years Ago (October 2013):

    • MLS® HPI Price: +50%

    • Sales: -51%

    • Total Inventory: -23%

Market Condition Analysis:

• North Vancouver is currently in a seller's market, indicating high demand and low supply. In contrast, West Vancouver's market is more balanced.

• Both areas have experienced significant price growth over the past decade, with North Vancouver leading in percentage increases.

• The Sales to Active Ratio in North Vancouver suggests a competitive market, while West Vancouver's ratio indicates a more stable environment. The most recent month's data in both areas appears typical of their recent trends, aligning with the broader market conditions observed over the past year.